In February 2026, my public trading portfolio maintained a +7% YTD return, despite a significant floating drawdown on short positions against the US Dollar (DXY). My core thesis centers on a “DXY Bottom,” driven by decade-low sentiment, AI-led efficiency deflation, and the upcoming Genius Act, targeting a recovery to the 105 level.
1. The Month’s Thesis: The King Returns
The 2026 market is being shaped by a fascinating dichotomy: while the mainstream media screams “de-dollarization” based on geopolitical noise, the quantitative data tells a different story. Sentiment toward the USD has hit its lowest point since 2012. Historically, this level of extreme bearishness is a precursor to violent upside reversals. My conviction is simple: if you want to invest in the future of technology, you need Greenbacks. The AI-native firms dominating global infrastructure remain firmly rooted in US capital markets.
The second layer of my thesis is Efficiency-driven Deflation. AI is aggressively stripping out operational costs across the S&P 500. Ironically, this attracts capital back into US Treasuries due to long-term price stability. This capital inflow creates a constant buying pressure on the USD that most retail traders are completely overlooking.
Finally, the market is starting to price in the Genius Act (slated for 2027). This regulatory and fiscal framework will consolidate the U.S. as the ultimate hub for intellectual capital, forcing massive global currency conversions back into Dollars. For a deep dive into this legislation, see my previous breakdown in the January 2026 Trading Portfolio.
2. Trading Section: Transparency & Skin in the Game
As Editor-in-Chief, I don’t hide the red. This portfolio launched with €1,000 in November 2025 and currently stands at €1,133. While the realized profit is solid, my current floating drawdown is substantial. I operate a methodology that tolerates high unrealized volatility in exchange for capturing massive macro trends.
Current Position Performance (CFDs)
| Asset/Pair | Bias | Entry Price | Current Price | P/L % (Margin) | Abs. P/L (€) |
| AUDNZD | Short | 1.18658 | 1.15124 | -72.10% | -124.42 |
| AUDUSD | Short | 0.71176 | 0.66082 | -156.18% | -133.13 |
| EURUSD | Short | 1.18166 | 1.16859 | -30.15% | -30.12 |
| GBPUSD | Short | 1.34780 | 1.32846 | -48.30% | -91.86 |
| USDCHF | Long | 0.76871 | 0.79183 | -78.91% | -67.46 |
The Lesson: The EUR/USD short is my strategic anchor. I believe we are heading for parity (1.000) or lower in the coming years due to structural European weakness compared to the US tech dynamism. This floating drawdown doesn’t keep me up at night; it’s a calculated statistical cost for anyone trading macro fundamentals.
The accumulated return is calculated as:
Yielding a current +13.3% since inception.
3. Investment Section: The Long Game
Beyond active trading, I continue to stack positions in USD-denominated dividend growth stocks. In 2026, dividends aren’t just yield; they are a hedge against the currency volatility of emerging markets.
4. Chart of the Month: The DXY Ascending Channel
The most critical technical setup of February is the Dollar Index (DXY) Bullish Channel, active since 2011. Recently, price action tested the lower boundary of this channel and printed a significant rejection candle on the monthly timeframe.
- Setup: Rejection at the channel floor (Dynamic Support).
- Target: 105.00 in the medium term.
- Indicator: RSI levels suggest “seller exhaustion” on the monthly chart.
If the Dollar breaks its immediate resistance, the floating drawdown you see in my trading table will pivot into exponential realized gains.
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FAQ
1. Why hold positions with such high negative drawdown?
Because my edge is in the macro thesis, not the noise. In institutional-style strategic positioning, floating P/L is a temporary metric until the market realizes the asset’s fundamental value.
2. What is the outlook for the Euro (EUR/USD)?
I expect a continued slide toward parity. Europe is lagging behind the AI revolution, and the capital flight toward USD-denominated assets is only beginning.
3. What is the Genius Act?
It is 2027 legislation designed to lure global talent and capital to the U.S. via tax incentives for digital assets and tech founders. This is a massive long-term tailwind for the Dollar.
Disclaimer: This article reflects my personal opinion and strategy. Trading CFDs and Forex involves a high risk of capital loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Only invest what you can afford to lose.
Related posts:
The Invisible Revolution: Why Dollar Tokenization is the U.S. Ultimate Weapon for Market Dominance in 2026
TLT: Why Deflation and the Greatest Short Squeeze in History Could Create the Opportunity of a Lifetime in U.S. Treasuries
Trading Portfolio January 2026: +11.8% Growth and My High-Conviction Bet on the Dollar Paradox
The Great Crypto Reset: Why the Bitcoin Crash Was Inevitable and Where I’m Placing My Next Buy Orders