The Benner Cycle is a predictive model created in 1875 by Samuel Benner, based on price cycles of pig iron and agricultural products. The chart identifies three phases: Panic Years (A), Years of Good Times/High Prices (B), and Years of Hard Times/Low Prices (C). For 2026, the cycle signals a “Type B” period, indicating a […]
In January 2026, the TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) represents the most significant asymmetric opportunity in the global market. With real-time inflation (Truflation) at 1.70%—well below the Fed’s target—and record-breaking short interest, a transition into a deflationary era is inevitable. Falling yields will aggressively drive up long-term bond prices. Coupled with equity market
Strategic stock picking focuses on identifying Wealth Generating Companies (WGCs) characterized by sustainable earnings growth, high ROIC, and durable competitive moats. The historical precedent of Ronald Read demonstrates that long-term discipline and dividend reinvestment often outperform aggressive trading. In 2026, amidst high market volatility, transitioning toward low-cost ETFs offers a diversified alternative to individual equity
In January 2026, the CNN Fear & Greed Index (66 – Greed) and the AAII Sentiment Survey (49.5% Bullish) have reached levels of extreme euphoria, while global investor cash allocation has plummeted to historic lows (below 30%). This asymmetry suggests an “overextended” and vulnerable market. The massification of ETFs and the absence of liquidity to
As of January 2026, Constellation Software (CSU) is experiencing a historic 40% drawdown, driven by market fears that Generative AI will disrupt Vertical Market Software (VMS). However, CSU’s fundamentals remain record-breaking, with a Forward PER of 19x and Price-to-FCF of 18x—valuation levels not seen since 2014. With the weekly RSI at extreme oversold levels, the
In 2026, the rise of predatory HFT algorithms has turned the traditional stop loss into a liability by facilitating institutional “liquidity sweeps.” Drawing from Nassim Taleb’s principles of antifragility, this analysis argues that fixed exits make portfolios fragile to market noise. Conversely, hedging serves as a robust alternative, capping losses without realizing them prematurely, thus
